Anticipated shifts in global trade dynamics suggest a forthcoming reduction in cargo flowing into the United States, particularly as the full effects of recently implemented tariffs begin to materialize. Despite an initial surge in early 2025 as businesses moved to secure goods before increased duties took hold, experts project a notable contraction in import volumes. This expected decline signifies a recalibration of trade patterns, influenced not only by tariff policies but also by inventory adjustments following earlier supply chain accelerations.
A recent analysis, jointly released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, indicates a projected 5.6% decrease in cargo volumes entering the U.S. throughout 2025. This forecast underscores the growing influence of protectionist trade measures on the flow of goods. Jonathan Gold, a vice president at the NRF overseeing supply chain and customs policy, emphasized that these tariffs are starting to impact consumer costs and could lead to fewer products being available on retail shelves. The report also highlighted that the year-over-year comparison would be affected by the expedited purchases that occurred in late 2024, partly in anticipation of potential port labor disputes.
The initial months of 2025 witnessed an upward trend in import volumes, recording a 3.6% increase compared to the previous year. This rise was largely attributed to importers fast-tracking their orders after the announcement of new duties, commonly referred to as “Liberation Day” tariffs, in April. This proactive buying strategy aimed to circumvent the higher costs that would eventually be incurred. Furthermore, data for July was expected to remain high as businesses continued to import goods before impending tariff deadlines.
However, the latter part of the year is set to experience the full force of several new tariffs, including a series of levies that came into effect on August 7. These measures are widely expected to exert downward pressure on shipping volumes. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted the current distortions in global trade flows as importers scramble to predict and front-load shipments to avoid higher duties. He cautioned that this behavior would inevitably result in a significant drop in trade volumes by late September, as warehouses would already be stocked for the upcoming holiday season.
Moreover, the report factored in the lasting impact of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast port labor negotiations in October 2024. Although the strikes were brief, they prompted importers to accelerate orders in the latter half of 2024, artificially inflating shipping volumes during that period. Consequently, when compared against these elevated figures from the previous year, import cargo volumes for the final four months of 2025 are predicted to be substantially lower.
The convergence of new trade barriers and the lingering effects of earlier strategic purchasing decisions is poised to reshape the landscape of U.S. imports in the second half of 2025, leading to a projected contraction in overall cargo volumes.