Future Fund LLC's managing director, Gary Black, projects Tesla's third-quarter vehicle deliveries will surpass Wall Street estimates by a substantial margin, potentially 10-15% year-over-year. This optimistic outlook comes as Tesla navigates an evolving strategic landscape, increasingly emphasizing artificial intelligence and robotics. The company is also making significant advancements in its autonomous driving technology and expanding its Robotaxi services, even as discussions around an affordable electric vehicle model continue. These developments are set against the backdrop of recent controversies, including CEO Elon Musk's compensation package and adjustments to the definition of Tesla's Full Self-Driving system, highlighting the multifaceted challenges and opportunities facing the automotive and tech giant.
Gary Black's Outlook on Tesla's Q3 Performance and Future Endeavors
On September 9, 2025, Gary Black, a prominent investment manager, shared his insights on Tesla's upcoming third-quarter delivery results. He confidently predicted that Tesla would achieve record deliveries, exceeding the analyst consensus of 431,000 units by a significant 10-15% margin. This optimistic forecast is largely attributed to the conclusion of the $7,500 Federal EV Credit, which likely spurred demand. Black also delved into Tesla's future plans, particularly concerning an anticipated affordable electric vehicle. He posed a crucial question: would this new model, expected to launch in the fourth quarter at around $35,000, represent a completely novel design that broadens Tesla's target market, or merely a simplified version of the existing Model Y with a smaller battery? This inquiry aligns with recent observations of a camouflaged, compact Tesla vehicle at the company's Gigafactory in Texas, fueling speculation about new additions to the product lineup. Beyond vehicle sales, Black highlighted Tesla's growing commitment to robotics and autonomous technology, suggesting that while electric vehicle sales currently account for over 80% of the company's profits, these emerging sectors could play an increasingly vital role in Tesla's long-term valuation.
In related news, Tesla has recently made significant strides in its autonomous driving initiatives. The company quietly revised the official definition of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system on its website, clarifying that while advanced, the system still necessitates human supervision and does not enable full autonomous operation. This adjustment is particularly relevant given a milestone in Elon Musk's substantial CEO compensation package, which ties a portion of his earnings to achieving over 10 million active FSD subscriptions. Furthermore, Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi application on the Apple App Store, quickly gaining traction in download rankings. The company also announced an expansion of its Robotaxi services in Austin, Texas, to include highway operations. This expansion involved a notable change in protocol, moving the safety operator to the driver's seat, a potential response to new autonomous driving regulations in Texas. In a broader strategic move, Tesla unveiled its Master Plan IV, signaling a pronounced shift towards artificial intelligence and robotics. Following this announcement, Musk prognosticated that the Tesla Optimus robot would eventually account for more than 80% of Tesla's future valuation, underscoring the company's evolving focus from a primary electric vehicle manufacturer to a leader in AI and robotics innovation.
This evolving narrative from Tesla provides a compelling case study in corporate adaptation and future-forward thinking. While the company continues to refine its core automotive business, the aggressive pivot towards AI and robotics signals a clear vision for diversification and long-term growth. The balancing act between maximizing current revenue streams from EV sales and investing heavily in speculative, yet potentially transformative, technologies like humanoid robots and fully autonomous vehicles will be critical for Tesla's continued success and market leadership. From an investor's perspective, this strategic direction presents both significant opportunities for exponential growth and inherent risks associated with pioneering unproven markets. The emphasis on FSD subscriptions and the ambitious targets for the Optimus robot highlight Tesla's commitment to pushing technological boundaries, which could redefine not only the automotive industry but also the broader landscape of artificial intelligence and automation. This strategic foresight, while audacious, positions Tesla at the forefront of technological innovation, potentially unlocking unprecedented value for its stakeholders.