BMI Research presents an optimistic, yet measured, forecast for the metals sector in 2026, predicting that most raw materials and metallic elements will command higher average prices compared to 2025. This positive projection is underpinned by several key factors: a tightening of global supply, a surge in demand from industries dedicated to achieving net-zero emissions, and an overall stabilization of the world economy.
A crucial element in this positive outlook is the expected decrease in tariff-related uncertainties, which BMI believes reached their peak in mid-2025 and will largely diminish throughout 2026. The reduction of cross-border trade risks is anticipated to foster increased investment, streamline supply chain planning, and enable producers to operate with greater cost predictability. However, the report singles out copper as a potential area of concern, noting that a U.S. Commerce Department update due by June 2026 will dictate whether new duties are imposed starting in 2027. Furthermore, the trend of mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector is expected to persist, driven by the intense competition to secure essential minerals for clean energy technologies.
Despite these favorable trends, BMI acknowledges several mitigating factors that could temper the market's upside. The stabilization of the U.S. dollar index within a specific range is expected to cap gains for metals. For gold, an early 2026 surge is predicted to recede, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce as global monetary easing loses momentum. Additionally, the slowdown in China's real GDP growth, projected from 5% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, coupled with ongoing weakness in its property market, is expected to restrain the growth of industrial metals prices. Nevertheless, consistent policy support from China is likely to provide a counterbalance, boosting demand for key industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel.
The trajectory of the metals market in the coming year reflects a delicate balance between global economic resilience and specific sector challenges. The anticipated easing of trade tensions and the growing demand from green energy initiatives paint a hopeful picture for mineral prices. However, investors and industry participants must remain cognizant of currency fluctuations and the economic shifts in major markets like China. Navigating these complexities with strategic insight will be paramount for capitalizing on the opportunities presented while mitigating potential risks.