The year 2025 witnessed an extraordinary performance in the commodities market, particularly for silver, which surged by an impressive 159%. This remarkable increase was underpinned by its traditional role as a safe-haven asset amidst global uncertainties and robust industrial demand. Despite this stellar performance, a sharp sell-off at the close of December and an elevated market positioning have sparked discussions about a potential near-term market bubble.
While immediate concerns about a significant market peak persist, a deeper analysis of indicators such as the Silver/Gold ratio and its deviation from the 200-day moving average suggests that silver has not yet reached a major long-term zenith. These metrics, while high, have not breached historical thresholds that typically precede prolonged downturns, indicating that the current rally is likely not structurally exhausted. However, a medium-term price adjustment seems highly probable before silver can achieve new highs.
Technical assessments, particularly through Elliott Wave theory and momentum oscillators, imply that a substantial bullish wave has concluded. This suggests an impending corrective phase that will test key support levels, setting the stage for a potential final upward thrust. Investors should closely monitor resistance at $84.03 and support levels around $67.16 and $61.91–$62.75, as a decisive move above the resistance could signal a further ascent towards $87.90–$97.89.
The market's natural cycles of expansion and contraction are inherent, and careful observation of these movements, along with a deep understanding of underlying demand and supply dynamics, empowers investors to navigate the complexities of commodity markets effectively. This blend of technical foresight and fundamental strength allows for judicious decision-making, ensuring that opportunities are recognized and managed responsibly.