Rigetti Computing, a key player in the quantum computing sector, presents a high-stakes investment opportunity amidst the nascent stages of this revolutionary technology. The company's stock performance has been volatile, mirroring the inherent uncertainties and speculative nature of the quantum market. Despite notable progress in developing quantum processing units, Rigetti faces fierce competition and the formidable challenge of bridging the gap between current capabilities and the immense requirements for commercial quantum viability. Investors are left to weigh the potential for groundbreaking innovation against the substantial risks involved in a field still years away from widespread adoption.
The Current Landscape of Rigetti's Quantum Technology
Rigetti Computing, a prominent innovator in the quantum computing sphere, is actively developing quantum computing units (QCUs) and has garnered considerable attention, experiencing significant stock price movements over the past year. However, its shares have recently retracted, erasing prior gains. The company operates within an emerging industry, competing with tech giants like Alphabet's Google and IBM, alongside other startups, to create a commercially viable quantum computing product. The primary technical hurdles revolve around optimizing quantum systems for speed, accuracy, and scale. Speed refers to the rapid manipulation and processing of quantum particles, while accuracy is typically measured by two-qubit gate fidelity, indicating the percentage of error-free computations. Scale pertains to the number of physical qubits integrated into a quantum system. A critical challenge for all quantum companies is the inverse relationship between increasing scale and speed and maintaining high accuracy.
Rigetti's systems exhibit impressive speed, with its 108-qubit system achieving gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds, a remarkably fast rate. However, the median accuracy of this system, measured by two-qubit gate fidelity, stands at 99%. While seemingly high, this level of accuracy trails competitors; for instance, IonQ boasts 99.99% fidelity in a 100-qubit system, albeit with slower speeds. Rigetti's smaller systems demonstrate higher accuracy, with its 36-qubit system reaching 99.6% fidelity and its 9-qubit system achieving 99.7%. The company's CEO has expressed confidence in reaching 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity in its upcoming Cepheus-1-108Q system. Nevertheless, achieving commercially viable quantum computers is estimated to require at least one million physical qubits and a fidelity of 99.99% or even higher, suggesting a considerable journey ahead for Rigetti and the industry at large.
Future Outlook and Investment Considerations for Quantum Computing
The journey towards a commercially viable quantum computer is extensive, with current estimations suggesting the need for at least one million physical qubits and a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.99% or greater. Rigetti aims to deliver a 1,000-qubit system with 99.7% fidelity by 2027, but long-term projections remain less clear. In contrast, rivals like IonQ are targeting significantly larger systems, envisioning a 10,000-qubit system by 2027 and a two million-qubit system by 2030. If Rigetti were to follow a similar growth trajectory, it could potentially reach 200,000 qubits by 2030 and surpass the one million-qubit milestone by 2031. However, the accuracy of such massive systems remains an open question, as does Rigetti's ability to outperform well-funded competitors like Google and IBM in this rapidly evolving domain.
Given the speculative nature of the quantum computing industry and the considerable uncertainties, Rigetti Computing is best suited for investors with a high tolerance for risk. The company's future success hinges on numerous factors, including technological breakthroughs, market adoption, and competitive dynamics, all of which are unpredictable in the long term. While projections from firms like McKinsey & Company indicate a potential quantum computing market of up to $72 billion by 2030, securing a substantial share of this market requires Rigetti to overcome significant challenges. For those looking to enter the quantum computing investment space, a diversified approach is recommended, perhaps by allocating small stakes across multiple quantum companies or investing in a quantum computing ETF, rather than concentrating all capital into a single, highly speculative venture. It is crucial to invest only capital one can afford to lose, as the path to commercialization for quantum technology is still fraught with unknowns.