Incyte has projected a weaker revenue outlook for 2026 than anticipated by financial analysts, largely attributing this to expected underperformance from its key growth product, Opzelura. This forecast has intensified worries within the market regarding Incyte's strategy to counteract the impending patent expiration of its leading pharmaceutical, Jakafi. Despite a robust fourth-quarter showing where total revenue exceeded expectations, driven by significant milestone payments and Jakafi's solid sales, the company's shares experienced a decline. The challenge lies in demonstrating Opzelura's capacity to fill the financial void left by Jakafi's patent loss, a critical factor for investor confidence.
On February 10, 2026, Incyte announced its financial projections for the year, estimating total revenue to be between $4.77 billion and $4.94 billion. This figure starkly contrasts with the average analyst estimate of $5.52 billion, as compiled by LSEG data. The company's stock experienced a dip of over 4% in premarket trading following this announcement, reflecting investor apprehension about its future growth trajectory. The primary concern stems from Opzelura, a treatment for skin disorders, which Incyte had positioned as a crucial driver for future earnings as Jakafi's patent protection concludes in 2028.
Specifically, Incyte's outlook for Opzelura's revenue in 2026 is set between $750 million and $790 million, falling short of analysts' consensus estimate of $801.5 million. This conservative projection comes even after Opzelura demonstrated strong performance in the fourth quarter, with sales increasing by 28% to $207.3 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $195.6 million. BMO analyst Evan Seigerman highlighted that this 'softer guide' for Opzelura indicates the company has considerable work ahead to ensure growth products can adequately compensate for Jakafi's patent expiration.
Opzelura is currently approved for the treatment of vitiligo and atopic dermatitis in patients aged 12 and older. Looking ahead, Incyte anticipates a regulatory decision in the latter half of the current year for a planned international launch of Opzelura for moderate atopic dermatitis by late 2026. Meanwhile, Jakafi, the company's flagship drug for blood cancers such as myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera, continues to be its highest revenue generator. Incyte projects Jakafi sales for 2026 to be between $3.22 billion and $3.27 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $3.09 billion. Jakafi's fourth-quarter sales also saw a 7% increase, reaching $828.2 million, outperforming expectations. Despite the positive performance of Jakafi and an overall total revenue of $1.51 billion in the fourth quarter, which was boosted by $100 million in milestone payments and surpassed estimates of $1.35 billion, Incyte's adjusted earnings per share for the quarter, at $1.80, were slightly below the analyst estimate of $1.93.
The company's forecast for the coming years suggests a period of transition, where the success of newer treatments like Opzelura will be paramount in maintaining and growing its market position. The pharmaceutical industry frequently faces the challenge of patent cliffs, and Incyte's ability to navigate this period will heavily depend on the successful commercialization and adoption of its emerging drug portfolio to offset the revenue impact from Jakafi's eventual loss of exclusivity.