Following an unprecedented 43-day government shutdown, U.S. statistical bodies are now working to catch up on the release of vital economic data. The delay in these reports, which cover key areas like employment figures, wholesale prices, retail transactions, and inflation rates, has created considerable uncertainty among financial markets, economic analysts, and policy shapers. The timely dissemination of this information is critical for understanding the nation's economic health, particularly as recent indicators have hinted at a decelerating job market and increasing inflationary pressures. This situation presents a complex challenge for federal monetary authorities in making decisions about interest rates.
The economic landscape appears fragile, emphasizing the urgent need for up-to-date financial data. Investors, economists, and decision-makers are particularly keen on fresh insights into inflation and employment. Prior to the shutdown, reports indicated a slowdown in job growth and an uptick in inflation, posing a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. They must consider whether to reduce borrowing costs to stimulate job creation or maintain higher rates to combat inflation. Nancy Vanden Houten, a prominent economist at Oxford Economics, noted the widespread uncertainty regarding the data release schedule, emphasizing that while some September data might be published quickly, others, especially those requiring ongoing collection during the shutdown, could face longer delays or even be permanently withheld.
As of late last week, specific revised schedules from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were still pending. Experts anticipate that the BLS will soon issue its September job market report, which was originally slated for early October, as the necessary survey data had already been gathered. Forecasts suggest a notable increase in job additions for September compared to the previous month. Similarly, the Producer Price Index report for September, detailing wholesale prices, is also expected to be released promptly due to pre-existing data collection. This report is projected to show a rise in producer prices.
Conversely, the release of September's retail sales figures from the Census Bureau might be further delayed. This is because data collection for these reports typically extends into October, a period when government operations were suspended. The October jobs report presents an even greater challenge, as government offices were closed during the critical data collection phase. While the BLS might still be able to provide October payroll data based on employer surveys, collecting household-based unemployment rate data will be significantly more difficult. Some analysts suggest that the October and November job reports could be merged and released in December.
The fate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October remains uncertain. Economists from Goldman Sachs have indicated that October's CPI data cannot be accurately estimated using conventional methods, and there's a possibility it might never be released. This would be an unprecedented event in the BLS's history, which dates back to 1913. The White House has acknowledged the potential for unreleased October CPI and jobs reports, underscoring the severity of the data gap created by the shutdown.
Reports for November, typically released in December, are also likely to experience delays as statistical agencies continue their efforts to catch up. An additional complexity arises for the Consumer Price Index in November: the timing of data collection, occurring in late November, might skew price measurements due to the start of holiday sales, potentially distorting inflation figures.