In the final quarter of 2025, Bitcoin, contrary to optimistic projections, did not achieve the anticipated surge to $150,000. Instead, the digital currency underwent a period of consolidation and price correction. This article delves into the various technical and market-driven elements that contributed to this unexpected trajectory, examining the impact of post-election market dynamics, key technical resistance levels, and the influence of exchange trading volumes.
Following the 2024 presidential election, Bitcoin experienced a substantial rally, pushing its value significantly higher. However, this upward momentum encountered considerable selling pressure as the price approached the $120,000 to $125,000 mark. This region had previously acted as a strong resistance zone, where the asset struggled to establish a firm foundation. As buying interest waned, Bitcoin quickly retreated, breaching several short-term support levels.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart indicated a continued corrective phase. The asset remained constrained beneath a descending trendline that had guided its price downward since its peak in October. Each attempt to rebound towards this trendline was met with rejection, underscoring the prevailing bearish sentiment. Until this critical resistance is decisively overcome, the broader market outlook for Bitcoin will likely remain negative.
Furthermore, Bitcoin consistently traded below significant Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), specifically within the $95,000 to $103,000 range. These levels transformed into active supply zones, meaning that any price increases into this area triggered selling activity. This suggested that traders were utilizing periods of strength to reduce their exposure rather than pursuing further gains, reflecting a cautious market approach.
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin's price action largely remained within a defined range. A support level emerged around $85,000, attracting buyers after a decline in November. While this support held firm, the cryptocurrency struggled to generate any significant upward movement from this point. Bitcoin found itself confined within a broad consolidation range, fluctuating between approximately $88,000 and $94,000. Frequent failures to breach the upper boundary and consistent bids near the lower end pointed to a prolonged period of equilibrium rather than an impending breakout.
Spot market data revealed persistent outflows, with approximately $2.39 billion in net spot outflows recorded over a two-week period. This continuous capital withdrawal from exchanges, even during short-lived rebound attempts, typically hinders upward price momentum. This dynamic largely explains why the market felt subdued; buyers were sufficient to prevent a sharp decline, but sellers consistently capped any rallies.
For Bitcoin to initiate a credible move towards higher valuations, several conditions must be met. The price needs to reclaim and sustain levels above $94,000. Crucially, the falling daily trendline must be broken with conviction, and the trend in spot flows must reverse from sustained outflows to consistent inflows. Without these indicators, any projections of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 remain speculative and premature.